Frame by frame, death by drowning
in your own in your own
analysis.
Step by step, die by numbers
in your own in your own
analysis…
King Crimson

Below is a chart from CalculatedRisk, one of my favorite spaces. It depicts the expectations Obama’s team is using when they created this year’s budget. You can read the team’s “Economic and Budget Analysis” by clicking that link (64 pages pdf). The blue line is the historical unemployment and the red line is the Obama projection. (Click the chart to see the original – it’s much clearer.)

Obama 2010 Budget Unemployment Forecast

The beauty of this is the way it’s presented. The forecast is for an average over the year. So for 2010, the unemployment rate can keep increasing for the next 5 months before anyone can say the estimates are off. And even then, the point could be argued all the way into December.

Bubble Bubble, Toil and Trouble

Looking back over the peaks in that chart I see and remember the things that ‘turned it around’ – In 2003 the housing boom was just getting really fueled up after the tech crash, in 1992 the Tech boom was just powering up after the S&L crisis was cleaned up. In 1982 the Reagan team had just remodeled the financial markets, aka, “Reaganomics”. In 1975 we had just come off the gold standard for our currency, allowing the Federal Reserve to print as much cash as they wanted.

You can argue the particulars of each instance, but I think I’ve got it down to its simplest form. Each time there was a crisis, our government turned to some form of credit inflation to produce employment. In each of the times I described it worked. The numbers are right there on that chart.

So why am I so certain it won’t work this time? Because each of those times, jobs were created by easy money in the form of cheap loans. For the last 4 decades, that’s what they’ve been doing – blowing bubbles made of different kinds of credit. They were using debt to create a false appearance of prosperity, a bubble. Each time the bubble burst, a new one was formed somewhere else.

This last bubble was a real doozy, too. To actually get it to work, they had to create loans (they like to call them ‘Financial Instruments’) which were literally impossible to pay off, then present them to the public as cheap cheap cheap (my brother steals it and I sell it), somehow forgetting to mention the suicidal nature of actually signing one of these things. I’m not condemning them (at the moment) for that, it’s just a fact and I’m stating it because it leads to the next thought…

They had to create those liar loans to get the less wealthy in a debt because the more wealthy middle class and rich were already tapped out on their credit.

With that in the front of my mind I have to ask: What kind of credit bubble do they think is possible to inflate that will create jobs this time?

Below is the current statement from the World Health Organization.

Ladies and gentlemen,

Based on assessment of all available information, and following several expert consultations, I have decided to raise the current level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 4 to phase 5.

Influenza pandemics must be taken seriously precisely because of their capacity to spread rapidly to every country in the world.

On the positive side, the world is better prepared for an influenza pandemic than at any time in history.

Preparedness measures undertaken because of the threat from H5N1 avian influenza were an investment, and we are now benefitting from this investment.

For the first time in history, we can track the evolution of a pandemic in real-time.

I thank countries who are making the results of their investigations publicly available. This helps us understand the disease.

I am impressed by the work being done by affected countries as they deal with the current outbreaks.

I also want to thank the governments of the USA and Canada for their support to WHO, and to Mexico.

Let me remind you. New diseases are, by definition, poorly understood. Influenza viruses are notorious for their rapid mutation and unpredictable behaviour.

WHO and health authorities in affected countries will not have all the answers immediately, but we will get them.

WHO will be tracking the pandemic at the epidemiological, clinical, and virological levels.

The results of these ongoing assessments will be issued as public health advice, and made publicly available.

All countries should immediately activate their pandemic preparedness plans. Countries should remain on high alert for unusual outbreaks of influenza-like illness and severe pneumonia.

At this stage, effective and essential measures include heightened surveillance, early detection and treatment of cases, and infection control in all health facilities.

This change to a higher phase of alert is a signal to governments, to ministries of health and other ministries, to the pharmaceutical industry and the business community that certain actions should now be undertaken with increased urgency, and at an accelerated pace.

I have reached out to donor countries, to UNITAID, to the GAVI Alliance, the World Bank and others to mobilize resources.

I have reached out to companies manufacturing antiviral drugs to assess capacity and all options for ramping up production.

I have also reached out to influenza vaccine manufacturers that can contribute to the production of a pandemic vaccine.

The biggest question, right now, is this: how severe will the pandemic be, especially now at the start?

It is possible that the full clinical spectrum of this disease goes from mild illness to severe disease. We need to continue to monitor the evolution of the situation to get the specific information and data we need to answer this question.

From past experience, we also know that influenza may cause mild disease in affluent countries, but more severe disease, with higher mortality, in developing countries.

No matter what the situation is, the international community should treat this as a window of opportunity to ramp up preparedness and response.

Above all, this is an opportunity for global solidarity as we look for responses and solutions that benefit all countries, all of humanity. After all, it really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic.

As I have said, we do not have all the answers right now, but we will get them.

Thank you.

Don’t panic – just remember this: in a universe like this you need to ALWAYS know where your towel is.

IMPORTANT UPDATE

29 April 2009 — Based on assessment of all available information and following several expert consultations, Dr Margaret Chan, WHO’s Director-General raised the current level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 4 to 5. She stated that all countries should immediately activate their pandemic preparedness plans. At this stage, effective and essential measures include heightened surveillance, early detection and treatment of cases, and infection control in all health facilities.

UPDATE:

27 April 2009 — The Emergency Committee, established in compliance with the International Health Regulations (2005), held its second meeting on 27 April 2009. The Committee considered available data on confirmed outbreaks of A/H1N1 swine influenza in the United States of America, Mexico, and Canada. The Committee also considered reports of possible spread to additional countries. On the advice of the Committee, the WHO Director-General has raised the level of influenza pandemic alert from the current phase 3 to phase 4. The change to a higher phase of pandemic alert indicates that the likelihood of a pandemic has increased, but not that a pandemic is inevitable.

Thanks to WikiProtest.com for mashing this map together.

For another look, including migration paths and dates of infection for the entire planet, check out the map at Live.com.

From the CDC website:

CDC is working very closely with officials in states where human cases of swine influenza A (H1N1) have been identified, as well as with health officials in Mexico, Canada and the World Health Organization. This includes deploying staff domestically and internationally to provide guidance and technical support. CDC has activated its Emergency Operations Center to coordinate this investigation.

Laboratory testing has found the swine influenza A (H1N1) virus susceptible to the prescription antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir and has issued interim guidance for the use of these drugs to treat and prevent infection with swine influenza viruses. CDC also has prepared interim guidance on how to care for people who are sick and interim guidance on the use of face masks in a community setting where spread of this swine flu virus has been detected. This is a rapidly evolving situation and CDC will provide new information as it becomes available.

There are everyday actions people can take to stay healthy.

* Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it.
* Wash your hands often with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze. Alcohol-based hands cleaners are also effective.
* Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread that way.

Try to avoid close contact with sick people.

* Influenza is thought to spread mainly person-to-person through coughing or sneezing of infected people.
* If you get sick, CDC recommends that you stay home from work or school and limit contact with others to keep from infecting them.

…

There is no vaccine available at this time…

Many of us here in the US don’t follow the weather overseas. Australia is going through one of its worst droughts on record at the same time as a record-setting heat wave.

And they’ve caught fire.

From TheTimesOnline:

The fires began on the hottest day ever recorded in Melbourne and were fanned by gale-force winds. Many of the dead were said to have waited too long in their homes before fleeing and were burnt alive in their cars as multiple fires tore through the countryside of Victoria state. Some of the blazes were set by arsonists.

Witnesses said the sky had turned to ash, began to rain embers and the fires which obliterated entire houses in seconds had turned parts of the picturesque Victorian countryside into something resembling a nuclear holocaust.

Cars became tombs as people tragically tried to out-run the flames. Others made lucky escapes by diving into dams and local reservoirs. One group broke into a local pub to seek refuge in the cool room until the blaze had passed.

[...]

Described as “hell on earth”, the bushfires began on Saturday amid record-breaking temperatures as the mercury hit 46.4C, Melbourne’s hottest day on record. The fires left a trail of death and destruction across the state, burning through 350,000 hectares (1,350 square miles). Fifty fires also began burning across the border in New South Wales, where temperatures reached 46C on Sunday.

The Australian Army was called in to assist the thousands of weary firefighters who battled the blazes over the weekend, and the government announced a $10 million (£4.5 million) emergency relief fund as well as immediate $1,000 cash grants to help the thousands of Victorians now left homeless. The fires are now officially the worst in Australia’s history, surpassing the death toll of the Ash Wednesday fires which claimed 76 lives when they tore through Victoria and South Australia in February, 1983.

For those of us who are Celsius-challenged, 46C is about 115F.

I am Jon, always looking forward to something.

Thanks to TreeHugger

Inches, That Is…

Regular readers here @ Wordout will recognize that I haven’t been publishing anything lately. You’ll also remember that I’ve been fighting an illness for quite awhile. The two are related.

Last week I was diagnosed with lung cancer. The cancer seems to be about 2 inches by 2 inches (4.5cm X 5cm), as measured using the CT scan. The lymph nodes in my lungs appear to be clear and healthy, which is a great sign that it may not have spread yet. More test results are required to verify that it’s still only in the lung. I will have those results next week, after the biopsy has been done.

So far I’ve been through the xrays, the CT scans, the PET scan and an MRI on my brain. Next week I will be laying on a table quietly while a doctor punctures my chest with a huge honkin’ needle to withdraw some of the mass for direct observation. A couple of days after that I’ll be able to know exactly how bad the situation is.

Only then will I know what treatment options are available. Right now, it appears that I will either 1) Be a good candidate for surgery or 2) Have no options at all.

Either way, I am alive today.

I’ve done a bit of reading, and here’s a couple of excerpts and links for you, in case you’re interested.

National Cancer Institute

Survival rates can be calculated by different methods for different purposes. The survival rates presented here are based on the relative survival rate which measures the survival of the cancer patients in comparison to the general population to estimate the effect of cancer. The overall 5-year relative survival rate for 1996-2004 from 17 SEER geographic areas was 15.2%. Five-year relative survival rates by race and sex were: 13.4% for white men; 17.9% for white women; 10.4% for black men; 14.5% for black women.

The stage distribution based on historic stage shows that 16% of lung and bronchus cancer cases are diagnosed while the cancer is still confined to the primary site (localized stage); 25% are diagnosed after the cancer has spread to regional lymphnodes or directly beyond the primary site; 51% are diagnosed after the cancer has already metastasized (distant stage) and for the remaining 8% the staging information was unknown. The corresponding 5-year relative survival rates were: 49.5% for localized; 20.6% for regional; 2.8% for distant; and 8.3% for unstaged.(See Fast Stats for more detailed statistics)

Mayo Clinic

Fluid in the chest (pleural effusion). Lung cancer can cause fluid to accumulate in the space that surrounds the lungs in the chest cavity (pleural space). Pleural effusion can result from cancer spreading outside the lungs or in reaction to lung cancer inside the lungs. Fluid accumulating in the chest can cause shortness of breath. Treatments are available to drain the fluid from your chest and reduce the risk that pleural effusion will occur again. Cancer that spreads to the pleura is considered inoperable, so surgery isn’t an option for treatment.

Cancer that spreads to other parts of the body (metastasis). Lung cancer often spreads (metastasizes) to other parts of the body — most commonly the opposite lung, brain, bones, liver and adrenal glands. Cancer that spreads can cause signs and symptoms, including pain, nausea, headaches or others based on what organ is affected. In some cases, treatments are available for isolated metastasis, but in most cases, the goal of treatment for metastasis is only to relieve signs and symptoms.

Death. Unfortunately, survival rates haven’t improved for people diagnosed with lung cancer. In most cases, the disease is fatal. Almost 60 percent, or three out of every five people, diagnosed with lung cancer die within a year. Keep in mind, however, that this number includes people diagnosed with all types of lung cancer at all stages of the disease. People diagnosed at the earliest stages have the greatest chances for a cure. Your doctor can discuss more relevant statistics about your chances for survival with you.

No Doubt

There is no doubt that my lung cancer is caused by excessive smoking. I could spend my time doing the ‘If Only…’ and that time would be wasted, so I’m not doing that. It’s too late to change that past and as stubborn as I am, I probably wouldn’t change it anyway. I bought the ticket, and that train is never late.

But look – it’s not too late for you to stop. If you’re smoking, it’s like making payments for your own ticket. Ask yourself: Is that the (one way) trip I really want to take? Look around you. Are these the people you want to watch you die?

I am Jon. Put out that damned cigarette.

Image via Wikipedia

From the University of Alaska, Fairbanks:

From ClimateProgress:

From the original announcement published in the the online British journal, TheIndependent:

and a related story from TheIndependent:

I usually don’t quote me but here it is anyway, from the post titled ‘Arctic Methane’:

We all need to wake up to the real catastrophe brewing right under our noses. If you think the financial meltdown is bad, just wait ’til the climate meltdown gets your undivided attention.

I am Jon. Time to wake up and smell the methane, folks.

Watch this really well-made and insightful video for a great explanation of what we’re really up against when it comes to Climate Change. Click the arrows to go full screen.

What Is The Sound Of No Hands Clapping?

This isn’t just about the polar bears any more… as a matter of fact, it never really was.

It’s about our survival.

The earth will be here, regardless of what we do.

The question is this: If the earth is still here, does it really matter to any of us if we aren’t here to enjoy it?

I am Jon. Get a grip.

Thanks to Worldchanging… see for yourself. Click the link and go there.

Image by murplej@ne – under deconstruction via Flickr

Click this link to the Boston Globe and look at the photos. It’s just terrible…

From the Boston Globe, published December 15th:

‘On the night of Saturday, December 6th, two Special Guards of the Greek police clashed with a small group of young men. The exact details of what took place are still unclear, but it is known that one of the Guards fired three shots, and one of those bullets caused the death of 15-year-old Alexander Grigoropoulos – whether the injury was made by an accidental ricochet or deliberate shot remains to be determined. The two Guards are now in jail awaiting trial, the shooter charged with homicide. This incident sparked an immediate and widespread response in the form of angry demonstrations and riots in many Greek cities that have continued at varying levels to this day – though dimming in intensity recently. Alexander’s death appears to have been a catalyst, unleashing widespread Greek anger towards many issues – police mistreatment of protesters, unwelcome education reforms, economic stagnation, government corruption and more. (37 photos total)’

I guess our US mainstream ‘media’ wanted to make sure the riots were a big enough story before they showed us. Or maybe they were just hoping this kind of news would quietly go away. Well, a week into it, the unrest continues, as reported by the UK based DailyMail, published Dec 15th:

‘Although the intensity of protests has tailed off in recent days pockets of violence are still occurring and more rallies have been planned for this week.

Today, around 50 demonstrators hurled eggs at police outside the main Athens court, where a hearing took place for dozens of people arrested during Greece’s worst riots in decades, sparked by the killing of Alexandros Grigoropoulos on December 6.’

As things get worse, I think we will start seeing more of this, and closer to home.

Then again, maybe we won’t be seeing this? But that doesn’t mean it won’t be happening. Mainstream media sucks anymore.

I am Jon, and I want to know why we in the US are just hearing about this?

(edit) It has been pointed out to me that this story was indeed reported here in the US back on the 6th of December – I must have missed it. Sorry ’bout that.
Nevertheless, as the situation unfolded the riots became worse, evidently reaching a peak around the 13th. I still stand by my criticism of US MSM. We were not kept informed as the situation in Greece deteriorated, whereas I found in my research that in Europe (for example) daily reports were published in most of the bigger outlets.
Still, I was wrong in asserting that we were never informed at all.

Thanks to Paul at InfectiousGreed for pointing us to this.

Image via Wikipedia

Q: When was the last time you ever saw 3-month Treasury Bills yield a NEGATIVE amount?

A: NEVER.

What amazes me the most is the amount of cash that was willing to be dropped into this hole: $30 Billion. According to Barry (below) the ‘demand was so great even for no return that the government could have sold four times as much’.

Check it out, via Barry at TheBigPicture:

We mentioned this yesterday as it happened, but Treasuries traded down to previously unseen yields. The 3 month T-bill went negative yield for the first time ever.

When was the last time you invested in something that you knew wouldn’t make money?

In the market equivalent of shoveling cash under the mattress, hordes of buyers were so eager on Tuesday to park money in the world’s safest investment, United States government debt, that they agreed to accept a zero percent rate of return.

The news sent a sobering signal: in these troubled economic times, when people have lost vast amounts on stocks, bonds and real estate, making an investment that offers security but no gain is tantamount to coming out ahead. This extremely cautious approach reflects concerns that a global recession could deepen next year, and continue to jeopardize all types of investments.

While this will lower the cost of borrowing for the United States government, economists worry that a widespread hunkering-down could have broader implications that could slow an economic recovery. If investors remain reluctant to put money into stocks and corporate bonds, that could choke off funds that businesses need to keep financing their day-to-day operations.

Investors accepted the zero percent rate in the government’s auction Tuesday of $30 billion worth of short-term securities that mature in four weeks. Demand was so great even for no return that the government could have sold four times as much.

In addition, for a brief moment, investors were willing to take a small loss for holding another ultra-safe security, the already-issued three-month Treasury bill.

As Barry concludes in a rather understated manner: ‘Quite remarkable.’

I am Jon. Do you think there’s a recession underway, or a full-fledged Depression?

Image via Wikipedia Citi Bailout – US Govt Screws US Again

Once again, the US Government has screwed us all with another undeserved bailout of a financial behemoth. Citigroup, whose exposure to subprime mortgages and their derivatives caused a more than 87% drop in ‘value’ this year, has been bailed out with not just a cash infusion, but substantial guarantees against future losses.

Longtime readers will recall that I’ve published pieces on Citi already twice this year. First, I reported on their choice of using known spam outfits to deliver official emails from the company, opening up their customers to more spam, as well as having their emails blocked by most spam filters.

Then in September I reported on their exposures to several types of risk, most notably in the subprime and derivatives markets, which made them particularly susceptible to failure. At that time, their share’s prices had declined only around 60% through the year. The conclusion of that piece was that Citi was indeed a risk to any and all who held their paper.

The Trick Is To Try To Swallow It

Of course, both of those were published BEFORE the Treasury Department rammed the $700 billion bailout down our throats. Had I known then that the Goldman Sachs alumni who are in control of our economy would be so eager to leverage the Fed up to 50%, higher even than any of the ‘Not Quite Big Enough To Save’ firms that have since disappeared (think Lehman Brothers, et al), then my conclusion would have been a bit different.

As long as our Goldman government is allowed to just create cash, adding to the already back-breaking burden of future taxes, companies like Citi will continue to survive and even to flourish.

From the AP report (emphasis mine):

Note the names in BOLD up there. Each of them have close connections to Goldman Sachs. Some of you might be surprised to see Obama’s name listed. After all, isn’t he ‘change we can believe in’? You may be surprised to learn that he recieved nearly a million dollars from Goldman Sachs in support of his campaign for president. They were, in fact, the second largest contributor to his campaign.

But don’t feel bad. The whole world believed the earth was the center of the universe for thousands of years.

The Slaves Rise Up… And Say Hoo-ray!

So, in other words, we ( yes, you and me) will have not only given Citi $45 billion in cash, we (right again, you and me!) are on the hook for up to $275 billion of almost certain losses due to their bad paper. Add it up: it means they’ve got up to $310 billion out of US, thanks to our Goldman Sachs controlled government.

America. Earth. Have you guys been paying attention? Is it starting to become obvious to you yet? Don’t you see what is happening right in front of your nose? You and your children and their children and theirs will not pay enough taxes to generate this kind of cash.

We are being sold into slavery, and as a species, we seem to be applauding.

I am Jon, with not even one hand clapping.